{"id":412,"date":"2026-04-22T17:32:08","date_gmt":"2026-04-22T15:32:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/futurewisecompany.com\/?p=412"},"modified":"2026-04-22T17:32:22","modified_gmt":"2026-04-22T15:32:22","slug":"denkansaetze-aus-unserer-foresight-arbeit-mit-executives-die-jede-fuehrungskraft-kennen-sollte","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/futurewisecompany.com\/en\/foresight-ideas-every-leader-should-know\/","title":{"rendered":"Ideas from our foresight work with executives that every leader should know"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n

When we think about the future, our attention goes forward almost automatically: to trends, scenarios, risks and opportunities. But one of the most underrated questions in strategic leadership isn’t what comes next?<\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

It’s this:<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

What would we have decided differently in the past?<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

I have little time for simply extending past developments in a straight line into the future. But questioning past decisions \u2014 even playing out alternative pasts in your head \u2014 is a remarkably effective instrument for making better decisions tomorrow.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Two methods I use regularly in my work with leadership teams:<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

1. Counterfactual thinking: what if we had decided differently?<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Picture a city that handed its best city-center locations to large shopping centers and international chains in the 2010s: H&M, Zara, the usual names.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

At the time it looked sensible. Big brands were considered safe. They brought footfall, spending power and reliable tax revenue.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Ten years on, the city center is hollowed out. E-commerce has eaten away at a lot of those store models. Rents stayed high. The caf\u00e9s, independent shops and local concepts that make a city center feel alive never had a real chance.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The underlying assumption back then was:
large chains are resilient. They draw people in. They’re the future.<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

But what if the city had decided differently? What could it have done instead, and what would the consequences have been?<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

That’s where counterfactual thinking earns its keep. The method doesn’t only show what went wrong<\/em>. It exposes which assumption made the decision feel obvious at the time.<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

And that’s what makes it strategically relevant today:<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Which of our current certainties will look like that empty shopping center in ten years?<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

2. The pre-mortem: how did it fail?<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The second approach is the pre-mortem.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

A city is planning its first big marathon. Before any decisions are final, the team asks an unusual question:<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Imagine it’s the evening after the event \u2014 and it was a failure. What happened?<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Suddenly the answers start arriving:<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

    \r\n
  • Not enough medical staff along the route<\/li>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
  • Road closures were never communicated to residents<\/li>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
  • Aid stations were in the wrong places<\/li>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
  • The start clashed with another major event<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

    None of it was in the original plan. All of it could be fixed in time.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

    The pre-mortem shifts the perspective. Instead of asking abstractly could this fail?<\/em>, it asks something more concrete and more useful:<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

    How did it fail?<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

    Imagining failure in advance makes it far more likely you’ll spot the real risks early \u2014 before they get expensive.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

    Why these methods matter for leaders<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

    Strategic work involves a lot of looking forward: market shifts, technological developments, geopolitical scenarios.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

    But some of the clearest thinking about the future comes from an honest \u2014 or hypothetical \u2014 look backwards.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

    Because that’s where you see:<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

      \r\n
    • which assumptions you’d been treating as facts<\/li>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
    • which risks you systematically underestimated<\/li>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
    • which thinking errors you may well be repeating right now<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

      Being ready for the future isn’t only about looking ahead. It’s also about examining your own certainties.<\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      When we think about the future, our attention goes forward almost automatically: to trends, scenarios, risks and opportunities. But one of the most underrated questions in strategic leadership isn’t what comes next? It’s this: What would we have decided differently in the past? I have little time for simply extending past developments in a straight […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":413,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,36,3],"tags":[47,6,26,48,49],"class_list":["post-412","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-foresight","category-future-topic","category-news","tag-counterfactual-thinking","tag-foresight","tag-futures-thinking","tag-past","tag-pre-mortem"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t