What is a driver? What is a trend?

Drivers: a definition

Drivers are the causes behind a trend. They describe the fundamental forces that set change in motion or accelerate it. A driver is an underlying dynamic that enables, forces or structures change.

Typical characteristics:

• often operate over the long term
• are frequently structural or systemic
• aren’t always directly visible
• can usually be assigned to a STEEP category

Examples

• Demographic change
• Technological progress (AI and automation, for instance)
• Climate change
• Geopolitical shifts in power
• Changing values (security versus freedom, for instance)

 Drivers answer the question: “Why is something changing?”

Trends: a definition

Trends are the visible expressions of change.
They describe concrete developments, stable over a certain period, that emerge from one or more drivers.
A trend is an observable pattern in behavior, markets, technologies or social practice.

Typical characteristics:

• are visible and can be described concretely
• develop over a limited period (and can gain or lose momentum)
• can be illustrated with examples, data or narratives
• usually emerge from the interplay of several drivers

Examples

• Remote and hybrid work
• Electric mobility
• Personalized medicine
• The circular economy
• Subscription models replacing ownership

Trends answer the question: “How does change actually show up?”