Schlagwort: Foresight

The future never arrives as a single, predictable line. This is why strategic foresight has largely abandoned the idea of „predicting“ what comes next in favor of something far more useful: developing scenarios – multiple, plausible, internally consistent stories about how the future could unfold.

Scenario development is not about being right, but about being prepared. It helps organizations stretch their imagination, stress-test their strategies, and recognize the early signals of change before competitors do. Below, we’ll walk through what scenario development is, why it matters, and three of the most influential approaches practitioners use today: the Shell scenario method, the 2×2 matrix, and the archetypes approach.

Why Scenarios?

Traditional forecasting extrapolates from the present: take last year’s numbers, adjust for known trends, and project forward. This works reasonably well in stable environments. It fails spectacularly when the world shifts — during pandemics, geopolitical ruptures, technological leaps, or financial crises.

Scenarios are not about the question: „what is most likely?“, but about „what is possible, and what would each possibility mean for us?“ A good set of scenarios captures the genuine uncertainty of the future without dissolving into infinite possibilities. They are tools for decision-making under deep uncertainty, helping leaders see their assumptions, identify blind spots, and build strategies robust across multiple futures.

There are dozens of ways to develop scenarios, so here are the most interesting ones:

The Shell Scenario Approach

No discussion of scenario planning is complete without Royal Dutch Shell. In the late 1960s and early 1970s, Shell’s planners – most famously Pierre Wack – pioneered a method that would become legendary after the company anticipated the 1973 oil crisis when its competitors did not.

The Shell approach is intensive, narrative-driven, and deeply qualitative. It typically begins with framing a strategic question — something concrete enough to matter but broad enough to invite real exploration. From there, planners scan the environment for driving forces: technological, economic, environmental, political, and social factors that shape the issue. These forces are then sorted by importance and uncertainty, and the most critical uncertainties become the backbone of two to four richly developed scenarios.

What makes the Shell method distinctive is its emphasis on storytelling and challenge. Scenarios are not bullet-point lists of conditions; they are coherent, plausible narratives with internal logic, vivid detail, and named characters of change. The goal is to produce stories that surprise executives, force them to confront mental models, and leave a lasting impression. Shell still publishes major scenario studies today, often with multi-decade time horizons exploring energy transitions and geopolitical shifts. The strength of the Shell approach is depth. Its weakness is cost: doing it well takes months of work, skilled facilitators, and senior leadership engagement.

The 2×2 Matrix Method

If the Shell approach is the gold standard, the 2×2 matrix is the workhorse. Developed and popularized by the Global Business Network (GBN) in the 1990s — drawing heavily on Shell’s intellectual heritage — it offers a faster, more accessible way to generate four scenarios that span a meaningful range of futures.

The method is elegant in its simplicity. After identifying the driving forces relevant to the question at hand, the team selects the two most important and most uncertain forces. These become the axes of a matrix. Each axis runs from one extreme to the other (for example, „high regulation“ to „low regulation“), and the four resulting quadrants each describe a distinct future world.

Imagine a company exploring the future of urban mobility. The team might land on two critical uncertainties: the pace of autonomous vehicle adoption (slow vs. fast) and the dominant ownership model (private vs. shared). The four quadrants then yield four very different futures — a world of privately owned self-driving cars, a world of shared autonomous fleets, a world of traditional private ownership, and a world of shared human-driven mobility. Each quadrant gets a name, a narrative, and a set of implications for strategy.

The 2×2 method is widely loved because it is fast, visually intuitive, and produces scenarios that feel meaningfully different. It works well in workshops and is easy to communicate to stakeholders. The trade-off: by collapsing complexity into two axes, it can oversimplify, and the choice of axes carries enormous weight. Pick the wrong two uncertainties and you get four scenarios that feel hollow.

The Archetypes Approach

The archetypes method takes a different starting point. Rather than building scenarios from the ground up via driving forces, it draws on the observation — first made systematically by futurist Jim Dator and developed further by researchers like Sohail Inayatullah and Peter Bishop — that scenario stories tend to cluster around a small number of recurring patterns. Dator’s classic four archetypes are:

Continued Growth — the future as more of the present, with established trends extending forward. Economies expand, technology progresses, institutions persist.

Collapse — systems break down. Environmental, economic, political, or social crises overwhelm existing structures, leading to significant decline or rupture.

Discipline — society organizes around a constraining principle, often in response to limits. Resources, behaviors, or freedoms are deliberately constrained to preserve something deemed essential — sustainability, security, tradition, equality.

Transformation — a fundamental shift in what it means to be human or to organize society, typically driven by technological, spiritual, or values-based change. The post-transformation world operates by different rules entirely.

Practitioners take their core question and write each archetype into a scenario specific to the topic. A study of the future of higher education, for example, would produce a „continued growth“ scenario where universities keep expanding, a „collapse“ scenario where the model breaks under financial and demographic pressure, a „discipline“ scenario where education is reorganized around tighter purposes and constraints, and a „transformation“ scenario where AI, biotechnology, or new social structures redefine learning entirely. The archetypes approach is powerful because it forces teams to consider futures they might otherwise avoid — particularly collapse and transformation, which executives often find uncomfortable. It also produces scenarios that span a genuinely wide possibility space. Its limitation is that the archetypes can feel formulaic if applied mechanically, and they sometimes obscure the specific driving forces shaping a particular issue.

Our Approach at the Futurewise Company

At Futurewise, we don’t believe in one-size-fits-all foresight. Every strategic question carries its own texture — different uncertainties, different stakeholders, different time horizons — and our methodology adapts accordingly. While we draw on the established traditions described above, we typically build scenarios through a tailored sequence that combines several techniques into a coherent process.

We often begin with the Futures Wheel, a structured ideation tool that helps us trace the ripple effects of a change. Starting from a central trigger — a new technology, a regulatory shift, a demographic transition — we map out first-order consequences, then second- and third-order effects radiating outward. This is particularly powerful for surfacing emerging customer needs or identifying problems that haven’t yet appeared on anyone’s radar. If autonomous delivery becomes mainstream, what new anxieties, opportunities, or behaviors does that create two or three steps down the line? The Futures Wheel makes the implicit explicit.

Once we’ve identified emerging needs or problems, we ask the critical follow-up question: under what conditions would these actually emerge? A trend identified in a workshop is not the same as a trend that will materialize in the world. We systematically define the conditions that would have to hold — regulatory environments, technological maturity, consumer trust, infrastructure readiness, geopolitical stability — for each potential development to take shape.

These conditions are then assessed through an impact/uncertainty matrix. Each condition is plotted on two dimensions: how much it would shape the outcome if it occurred (impact), and how unpredictable its trajectory is (uncertainty). The conditions that cluster in the high-impact, high-uncertainty corner become our candidates for scenario axes — because these are precisely the factors where being wrong matters most and where the future genuinely could break in different directions.

From this assessment, we select the most strategically critical uncertainties as our axes and build out scenarios. To pressure-test and enrich these scenarios, we draw on an adapted Delphi Method. The classical Delphi approach gathers expert input through anonymous multi-round surveys until consensus emerges, but we’ve reshaped it to fit the realities of strategic work with executives. Instead of running surveys, we conduct semi-structured 1:1 interviews built around hypotheses derived from our earlier foresight work — the Futures Wheels, the impact/uncertainty assessments, the draft scenario matrices. This format preserves the comparability across experts that makes Delphi valuable, while allowing for the depth, nuance, and unexpected insights that only a real conversation can surface. We then synthesize these expert perspectives to sharpen our scenarios, identify future growth opportunities, and build decision-relevant views on the strategic risks and opportunities our clients face.

Choosing an Approach

These three methods are not in competition. Experienced practitioners often combine them, using the Shell method’s rigor for high-stakes long-term studies, the 2×2 matrix for workshops and rapid strategy sessions, and the archetypes for ensuring breadth of imagination. The right choice depends on the question, the time available, and the audience.

What unites all three is a fundamental commitment: take the future seriously as a space of multiple possibilities, build coherent stories about those possibilities, and use them to make better decisions today. Done well, scenario development does not eliminate uncertainty — it equips you to act wisely within it.

The future will still surprise you. But with good scenarios, fewer of those surprises will be the kind that catch you completely off guard.